Quake Risk Prediction... Rebuild or Not? ...Impt Advice from Haiti's Top Geologist

IMPORTANT UPDATE BELOW - FROM HAITI'S TOP GEOLOGIST - THAT IMPACTS ON REBUILDING, OR MOVING CAPITAL...BOTH BAD NEWS - BUT GOOD TOO.

Hello all,

I'm just back in US today after ~two weeks in Haiti and I have had a lot of deep conversations with players in key sectors related to Rebuilding Haiti. I hope to summarize these discussions and load the summary information to this blog in the coming days. I have videotaped interviews with architects, geologists, women leaders, community leaders...


Meantime, I feel it's important to immediately share some of the most important TAKE HOME nuggets of information that I got Thursday from a long interview with Claude Prepetit, Haiti's official geologist. He works with a top French geologist, Dr. Eric Calais, of University of Purdue.




The Prepetit-Calais duo have worked together for many years to carefully take measurements of geological activity for over a decade and had CORRECTLY predicted a 7.0 or greater earthquake -- they prediced a 7.2. They are now working fast to take new measurements, post-quake, and integrate satellite findings or geospatial mapping that have been done by pilots flying over Haiti to map the new geological landscape.

I interviewed Prepetit Thursday in Haiti, before a Friday forum in Port-au-Prince where some of this information was to be discussed. My summary and action points below consists are a rapid summary of the data, coupled with possible STEPS to take, in different stages, based on his findings and my thoughts.

I asked Prepetit the burning questions I had, based on his predictions -- questions that urgently occupy many Haitians with destroyed homes, and other actors, including the Haitian government, who need to provide shelter for millions who are homeless, and to rebuild soon, but aren't certain what to do, or where, or when.

Also, please see here a very good explanator Der Speigel article by Clemens Höges, "Preparing for the Next Earthquake -- Haiti Debates Moving Its Capital" which got many newcomers to Haiti - and Haitians themselves - newly worried days ago when it was translated and posted online.

The Future Threat(s):

TAKE HOME MESSAGE: There is a strong evidence-based prediction by Prepetit that another BIGGER, 7.6 quake will hit Haiti within 20 years, give or take a few years.

As reported, he thinks it will cause the most damage in Port-au-Prince, the capital.

However, the risk is REGIONAL: the entire CARIBBEAN region is at risk for this 7.6 quake, which means neighboring countries need to take more preventive measures too, immediately and going forward, to monitor, mitigate and plan disaster responses.

Good news is that there are two countries in the region that have done pioneering work, and one, Martinique, is viewed as a model for Haiti.

MORE URGENT QUAKE RISK:

There's a more immediate prediction that a 6.0 earthquake could hit Haiti's north within 6 months. This means more monitoring stations are needed there now, and shoring up of existing government and private sector structures to withstand this impact.

Other steps such as taking measures to REDUCE the concentration of the population of northern cities and towns would also reduce the impact of this predicted quake.

THE BIG GOOD within BAD NEWS: While Port-au-Prince is at ground zero to be struck again within two decades, it IS POSSIBLE TO REBUILD THE CAPITAL, VS MOVE IT -- a new ideas that has followed revelations of the future quake risk.


IS IT POSSIBLE TO REBUILD? YES.. BUT with these caveats in mind:...

Looking ahead, Prepetit said that clearly other countries have build cities that withstand 7.0 quakes - look at towering skyscrapers in Japan and states like California in the US - . So the ABILITY to construct, using state-of-the-art materials IS there. BUT...

WHETHER Haiti and Haitians can do that, given its shattered state and economy, the crushing poverty, the overpopulation of the capital and bigger cities, and the HIGH COST of building to withstand earthquakes - IS THE MORE RELEVANT QUESTION. It COULD BE DONE, in other words, BUT HOW LIKELY IS THAT?

The real factor: COST. It's quite expensive.

There is global experience, and many experienced actors are coming forward to assist to build well and soundly, but it will not be cheap. That makes it unlikely that the mass of now destitute, now homeless Haitians will be able to afford to build homes that can stand a 7.6 quake.

Other actions to take: Another critical major key to reducing the quake-impact risk is reducing the population of the capital, and implementing better urban planning.

In the wake of the Jan. 12 quake, some 200,000 people have fled the capital. The majority have gone to the Artibonite Valley. This is GOOD - in that this fertile area is also THE GEOLOGICALLY SAFEST, says Prepetit.

The NEW QUESTION IS: Will and HOW CAN Haiti's government and Western country donors take concrete steps to help Haitians RESETTLE in that safer valley - reducing the capital's population?

To do that, they need to HELP smaller cities ABSORB, and EMPLOY the large number of destitute, hungry, and homeless Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) who are already seriously taxing cities that are also hard-hit by the January 12 and subsequent events.

And to do that, they need to ASK RURAL COMMUNITIES/TOWNS WHAT THEY NEED/PRIORITIZE THEIR NEEDS to absorb, resettle and then PROVIDE THE RESOURCES -- SOONER than later, to keep people there. They need to do this NOW, not later -- the typical mistake made.

IMPT STEP TO TAKE FOR ALL: CLARIFY THE STAGE OF DISASTER RESPONSE:

As Haitians assess damage to public and commercial buildings, and private homes, experts stress that many are confusing the steps that must be taken now, or in a month, from those in a year - and the larger future picture.

There are some steps to take today -- immediately, and some within 3-6 months, and in this first year, and then in the immediate years ahead. From the work over the next year will come THE PLAN for REBUILDING HAITI in a long-term sense, and Haiti's capital. Not the other way around.

ACTIONS TO TAKE IN THESE DIFFERENT PHASES ARE (ROUGHLY) VIEWED AS:

1) NOW - TODAY and 3-6 WEEKS AHEAD -- THE EMERGENCY PERIOD :

A) The immediate need is to provide shelter and give sanitation services, and food, to internally displaced people, to protect from the coming RAINY SEASON. That is IMMEDIATE PRIORITY. There is increased risk of disease if people have no shelter from rains, especially in areas with many buried bodies in the rubble.

Then comes WORK -- without money -- some employment -- the crisis will deepen. Employing people to help clear rubble, to clear areas, is one way. HIRING HAITIANS to provide security, to distribute aid - partnering with larger agencies - will be another.

B)GET RESOURCES, HELP TO SMALLER CITIES OUTSIDE P-AU-P, including ARTIBONITE VALLEY: These already overpopulated cities (post Hurricane Gilbert) are struggling to absorb many of the 200,000 Haitians who left the capital for the provinces. The humanitarian relief effort has focused largely on P-au-P.

Now, there's a parallel effort to quickly move resources, aid, etc. to provincial towns, areas, AND to CREATE JOBS, PROVISIONAL HOUSING so that people will STAY THERE, and not return to Port-au-Prince.

An immediate ASSESSMENT of shifting population needs in the Artibonite province is critical -- to be shared with NGOs and private sector, who can help deliver aid, jobs, etc. and help the government and Haitian groups respond. Here, linkage with RURAL groups and peasant-based associations/networks who are poised to help deliver services will make it more efficient.

Critical Lesson: Use the existing infrastructure of Haiti -- its people, the groups who are locally placed, who know their own communities, who have local leaders, who need employment. PARTNER with them, and provide some resources for them to resume operations, esp if you represent an OUTSIDE actor/group/agency/donor.

2) TRANSITION PERIOD (1 YEAR: A) build/provide transitional housing/structures for government - in the capital - NOT INTENDED TO LAST FOREVER - but FOR A SHORT TERM, as larger plan is developed for a quake-resistant city(ies).

3)1-4 MONTHS FROM TODAY:

a)RETROFIT: given warning of a 6.0 quake in next six months, take steps soon to strengthen/retrofit government and other critical institutional structures (hospitals, schools, orphanages) in the NORTH - in anticipation of a possible 6.0 quake within 6 months.

b) Starting NOW, bring financial support to realise Prepetit's /Haitian geologists need for: installing more monitoring stations in the NORTH, working with Dominicans to do so in their country, to track this known threat
c) set up a NATIONAL geological INSTITUTE, collaborating with a REGIONAL group, and inviting global experts, to share the latest analyses of post-quake data, strategies for regional mapping, prevention, etc.
d) Examine Martinique's island MODEL to distill steps to take NOW related to NORTH risk of quake, and - looking ahead, how Martinique example may apply to Haiti's needs now.

4) SUPPORT CITY/TOWN civil society Disaster Response Teams in the NORTH to work with government to develop an ACTION PLAN related to the threat of a quake in 6 months.. and then SHARE THE PLAN WITH POPULATION.
Also:
a) help commercial/private sectors to assess risks to their sector;
b) at local /provicinal level: host public forums, inviting outside experts, to share expertise, resources, plans and
c)) invite /identify/encourage local TWINNING projects to help different sectors in cities/towns, esp in the NORTH PLAN, to access resources to implement a short-term ACION PLAN designged to mitigate threat of 6.0 quake within 6 months.

4)A YEAR 2-5 YEAR MEDIUM-TERM DEVELOPMENT PERIOD - in which to implement the basic cross-sector GRID including GOVERNMENT buildings, key institutions, using models and materials that can withstand a 7.6 earthquake.

This, suggests experts, must be done with a view toward decentralization that can reduce over-concentration of people in the capital, and invests resources in other smaller cities, towns and especially RURAL areas, including the geologically stable Artibonite region.

5)LONG TERM REBUILDING PLAN, including CAPITAL,:
a)Develop a long-term plan for rebuilding Haiti, that builds upon EXISTING PLANS that were published two years ago by Haitian architects like Daniel Elie, and group led by Patrick Delatour - with input from grassroots groups in RURAL sectors.

b) Invite/consider establishing NATIONAL TWINNING Rebuilding/Reconstruction projects for Haiti that support transparency and equity, and high quality private-public sector projects, partnerships and programs.

c) consider establishing Rebuilding Recruitment offices - even provisional offices - for qualified Haitians to deposit their CVs NOW. (Candidates are being recruited outside Haiti for future contracts in Haiti - this must be done within Haiti. A possible agency to do this: Ministry of Public Works, working with USAID.

d) Publicize - using these Recruitment Offices - the new RFPs, and contracts that are emerging. Given the lack of internet access and limited telephone access for many Haitians, including rural residents, they are now at a disadvantage for finding our about emerging jobs and projects or RFPs. A PRO-ACTIVE strategy is needed to make public this information, in a way that Haitians can benefit. This is important to assure that local groups, with the most information about their area, can help bring their knowledge and expertize to problems and projects, partnering, if needed with outside groups who may have more expertise. Emphasize TRAINING.


MY NOTE: This approach would encourage large global and multisector agencies to allow outside qualified experts groups and sub contractors to bid for contracts, RFPs, and projects related to rebuilding Haiti, but ONLY if they team up with Haitian partners for major works projects, and follow a stated NATIONAL GOAL of sourcing/using locally produced materials and talent, and focusing on transfer of knowledge, resources, training by outside experts/agencies of Haitians -- with an eye toward sustainability, transference of control and ownership by Haitians for Haitians in the long term future.

c) Invite regional project collaboration in different sectors - to help REGION benefit from attention that Haiti quake has brought to REGIONAL risk - and regional EXPERTISE and MODELS.

4) THE LONG TERM GOAL: Carry out step 2 and 3 with a sense of the OVERALL LONG TERM PLAN that is needed - the Haiti and cities needed in the future -- so that what is discussed and developed and then built in 201l-2014 is done with a eye of what the long term goal should be.

5) DECENTRALIZED OPEN PUBLIC FORUMS, COMMUNICATION: Haitians at the base need to be educated, and encourage to participate in the national discussion of developing Haiti's future and rebuilding.

That includes creating public Town Hall style forums, inviting outside experts to inform, and providing TOOLS (computers, radio programs) that will provide RURAL Haitians and grassroots community groups with important expertise, a way to become and inform decision-makers about their views on the Rebuilding effort.

Needed: Partners to help Haitian government and Dept of Public Works, Haiti's Business Forum, etc help host such conversations, within and across key sectors that are engaged in reconstruction and rebuilding.

That also includes: Communication about such meetings, summary information etc.

MY SUGGESTION: A national bulletin on Rebuilding would be a critical tool to develop that would support public education, disaster preparedness and response, transparency and of course, employment and twinning projects.

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NOW FOR PREPETIT'S VIEWS...:



CAN P-au-P rebuild? Must the capital be moved? What's the risk of another quake and When? What should we do now - vs. later?



To summarize: Prepetit has reanalyses/and confirmed his careful prediction that Haiti will face a major new earthquake, a 7.6 he has calculated, in the next 20 years, give or take a few years.

The capital will be the most at risk - meaning it's not safe to rebuild. The most stable area in Haiti, he said, is the Artibonite valley -- specifically a spot at Dessalines, a distance from St. Marc on the coast.

His prediction, known to some geologists, and to some Haitians, caused great alarm among Haitians who are racing to take a next step - but aren't sure what it should be.

I asked: Should the capital be moved to Dessalines, like Brasilia was moved in Brasil, years ago -- something that's suggested in the Der Speigel article?

Not necessarily, replied Prepetit. It all depends on whether Haiti can attract the money to rebuild the capital to withstand the quake - which could theoretically be done (see Japan, see California), using a regional model (Martinique), and if it could reduce the over-population problem. (i.e... resettle those fled P-au-P after Jan 12; take steps to make other cities more attractive, given more power via decentralization plan.)


Q: What is the short term risk of aftershocks? What's his data/emerging evidence?

He says the many aftershocks are ample evidence that Haiti's tectonic plates are still actively moving,and the base is unstable. Aftershocks also provides impt release of gases. (example: California has some 30 quakes a day -- this helps avoid a major build up underneath the surface of the earth).

Prepetit WARNS that the NORTH of Haiti is AT GREAT RISK for another earthquake, measuring 6.0 - in the next six months. He is convinced it will happen.

LARGER CONCERN: While everyone is focusing on Haiti, rightly, the risk of a big 7.6 earthquake is REGIONAL - all Haiti's neighbors are vulnerable, maybe even southern Florida

That is why a regional approach is essential, as well as a national plan.

What about the idea of moving the capital to Artibonite?:

That plan is being promoted by Bernard Ethear, a sociologist with the Ministry of Land Reform, who I also spoke to Thursday.

As it stand now, there are at least three emerging/competing proposals for where /how to move the capital - all in preliminary stages of development. They are is based on the assumption P-au-P can't be rebuilt. It could be. But should it be?

Ethear favors the area of Dessalines as the place to put the new capital, and maybe place the government, but the legislature elsewhere, and maybe the industrial hub elsewhere. That way if a quake strikes, you reduce its ability to affect all sectors as has happened by centralizing institutional power in Port-au-Prince.

Others have different views, but all concur that leaving the capital in Port-au-Prince is the wrong way to go. Haiti has a chance to do it right, going forward. It must be bold, take advantage of international aid and interest, and take responsibility for what it now known of the risk of leaving the capital where it is now.

Outside Examples: Not so long ago, Brazil moved its capital to Brasilia. California has a government base in Sacramento, but has Silicon Valley for its industry, and Los Angeles as the base of the entertainment industry. There are myriad examples of why one moves a capital.

Other new towns/replanned cities are also needed, say experts.

Bottom line: Moving capital is ver valid idea, given how difficult it will be to AFFORD to build P-au-P where it is, strongly enough, to survive a 7.6 quake in two decades -- or later. It will be less costly, in the end, to move. But it requires major political will, and national leadership, at a time when the government is crippled, and that leadership, many feel, will not be forthcoming in the months to come when it's most needed. Others feel President Preval, with strong guidance by his civil sector task force and US/UN multisector support and guidance, could find the political will - and the resources. But it will take MAJOR COLLECTIVE EFFORT at a GLOBAL LEVEL, to help Haiti pull this off. It will also require a major Public Relations effort.

For now, they say: the emphasis should be on TRANSITIONAL HOUSING for the government in Port-au-Prince, and to use A YEAR to discuss, elaborate a plan, and then EXECUTE the first steps -- reestablish a permanent seat of government, major institutions - in years 2,3,4... based on the political, economic realities of what can be done.

yet, Ethear says: Haitians must take responsibility for heeding the warning: 20 years, more or less, is a short time period, but Haiti's future is at stake, the next generations. If Haiti rebuilds the capital now to centralize governent power, is it failing to respond to a clear warning, he feels.

As many know, it's also very costly to try to move so many people to resettle in another region.

So -- Before that move could/should happen, what needs to happen first - this year - is to shore up the resources and role of other, smaller towns, and think through how the more stable Artibonite region could absorb more people and grow over the next decade.

Later today, I'll post a video of the CONFERENCE that took place yesterday with Prepetit, Calais and M. Dieuseul Anglade, a geologist and Director-General of the Bureau of Mines and Energy. They were speaking to Haiti's business leaders and invited press about their findings related to the Jan 12 quake, and the risks ahead.

I'll also try soon to post my videotaped conversation with Ethear, whose a sociologist and works at the Ministry of Land Reform, about the competing views of civil society actors, including architects, engineers and others in the deveopment sector.

More to come, in other words....

Stay tuned.